1218 Grand-Saconnex Overall, experts tend to associate a higher degree of international cooperation with higher levels of immigration. In fact, some EU Member States and neighbouring countries still do which implies a potential loss of talent and skills. Results from the expert survey were developed in the context of the CrossMigration project – a EU-Horizon funded research project. There is an increasing policy interest across the EU to better plan and prepare for future migration flows. Delphi survey; Eurostat, 2020; Frontex, 2020. A future in which world regions grow economically more similar but countries act increasingly unilaterally (instead of using mechanisms of international cooperation) is considered the relatively most likely scenario. Mediterranean migration futures: Patterns, drivers and scenarios. 12. Migration forecasting: Beyond the limits of uncertainty. The second limitation is that scenarios often aren’t of timely use to policymakers that need to make decisions now. Until just two generations ago, most European countries recorded much more emigration than immigration. Some approaches to discuss the future of migration require advanced knowledge of statistics, others require quite a bit of imagination. In some scenarios, half of the experts’ estimated future irregular border crossings differed by an amount of 285,000 people—more than all annual border crossings recorded to the European Union (EU) in 2018. Impact of immigration on UK population growth, 10 Key Points on Mass immigration and Population G…, 150 more trades being opened to global recruitment…, What happens to those crossing the Channel illegal…. Migration scenarios have been a popular approach in the migration field in the recent decade (see Sohst et al, forthcoming). 2030, Global Trends to 2030, Europe and Migration, Migration, Integration, Global Migration, European Future, EspasHome. A Syrian refugee waits to meet Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Image: REUTERS/Chris Wattie - RTX2JALH 09 Jan 2017. Expert political judgment: How good is it? endstream endobj 149 0 obj <>>> endobj 150 0 obj <>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/TrimBox[0.0 0.0 595.276 841.89]/Type/Page>> endobj 151 0 obj <>stream The pages below present results from a Delphi survey with 178 migration experts. The tab 'Migration scenarios' shows four plausible scenarios for the world in 2030 developed for the survey and the key factors affecting future migration. The report aims to provide a baseline for objectives in the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular … To get the best understanding of the project results, we recommend to explore the tabs on this page in consecutive order. innovation programme under grant agreement Ares(2017) 5627812-77012. Increasing wealth inequality poses a challenge to African, Latin-American and Asian countries.
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