While China has slightly higher GNP ($23 trillion vs. the U.S. $20 trillion), it remains a much poorer country with a per capita income of $17,000. [iv] China is expected to slow to 6.3 percent growth in 2019. The WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index rose over 10 points, reaching 89.5 in September. Tariffs, NAFTA reforms and ongoing angst about Brexit have thrown foreign trade into a tailspin. Tariffs are not the only constraint in U.S. manufacturing. “CDPs and data have been hot topics for the last few years, but executives are now prioritizing unlocking value from unified data and therefore these initiatives are starting to get the mandates, funding, and resources to become an operational reality.
[xii] The Economy by John Schoen, CNBC Today many U.S. industries have become oligopolies with four or fewer companies controlling industries spanning from airlines to networking sites, home improvement stores to pacemaker manufacturing, and even beer (some of it not very good beer I might add). [xvi] Certainly there has been a tightening of regulation and credit. Discounters are preparing for belt tightening by U.S.
In particular, tweener brands are struggling. While markets have responded favorably, the deal focused on U.S. agriculture exports and doesn’t move the needle for other sectors such as manufacturing.
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In September, the global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained at around 50 for the fifth straight month, illustrative of an eroding manufacturing sector. As of August, backlogs had slowed to 14,000 aircraft, as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) shift production toward regional jets, drones and other spacecrafts. The biggest news in the aerospace and defense sector in 2019 was the grounding of Boeing’s 737 Max. Some metals such as nickel and copper have been volatile this year. After contracting in 2019, food prices are expected to rise 2.8% in 2020. While countries such as Vietnam have lower labor rates, their shipping routes are erratic and less frequent. It is predicted that by 2040, “shared mobility” will account for 80% of miles driven.[xxv].
[xv] STORES’ 2019 Retail Industry Trend Forecast by Susan Reda, NRF’s Magazine Corporate profits have surpassed expectations and fueled a surging on Wall Street. Brazil and Chile are easing monetary policy, which will provide some relief as inflation has been running about 8%. “They’re using more data and analytics to inform decisions. Yet, U.S. nationals continue to yield high profits. The confluence of these factors is impacting the supply chain.
The industry contracted in 2018 for the first time since the global financial crisis. Healthcare-U.S. healthcare spending is still double that of any industrialized nation (a staggering $11,000/person per year). Political uncertainty has caused a strain on Latin American economies.
[ix] Less are held by U.S. banks, which are better regulated than they were during the liquidity crisis.
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