COVID-19, which first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan last December, has infected more than 20 million people in at least 190 countries and territories globally, according to the World Health Organization. Learn specific steps that can help blunt the crisis’s impact—and enable your organization to emerge stronger. Thailand’s GDP growth projections have been further revised downwards to -7.3%, on the back of a global economic downturn, sharp decline in international tourist arrivals, and plunge in private investment levels. These measures are expected to inject about Bt400 bn (2.4 per cent of GDP) into the economy, according to the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO); we think the impact will depend on private-sector take-up of the measures. 0000002572 00000 n The outbreak will likely lead to severe job losses, particularly in tourism, due to transmission control and social distancing measures. 0000021000 00000 n In addition, we do not see a large increase in investment-related imports in the foreseeable future. In its January 2020 Fiscal Policy Report, the FPO reported that the Thai economy in the year 2020 is expected to grow at 2.8 percent, increasing from the previous year which expanded by 2.5 percent. In addition, Deloitte has taken the pulse of CxOs around the world to develop a deeper understanding of the most pressing issues facing your organisation today, and to develop the 6 most relevant effective solutions, allowing your organisation to Thrive in Volatile Times. The impact on household welfare is also likely to be severe. The economic impact of COVID-19 has been severe, particularly due to Thailand’s openness to trade and as a tourism hub. By subscribing, you accept the terms and conditions in our, ©2020 Bangkok Post Public Company Limited, Thailand’s economic outlook ‘worst in Asia’: analysts. 0000008661 00000 n The bank also lowers inflation forecasts for the 2020-22 period to reflect economic weakness and low oil prices, expecting average CPI inflation of - 0.5 per cent in 2020 (1.0 per cent previously), 1.0 per cent in 2021 (1.5 per cent previously) and 1.5 per cent in 2022 (3.0 per cent previously). Stimulus packages may result in lower contraction in year’s last quarter, Govt urged to set up corporate bond guarantee fund to rescue tourism industry, SET faces challenges this year before riding funds influx in 2021, Jobless claims declined last week while remaining elevated, Wall Street is helping private equity recycle its aging assets, Jobless claims remain at historically high levels. Officials have warned they’re considering additional steps to tame the baht if needed. Thailand is preparing to restrict some aspects of daily life after the country’s biggest spike in coronavirus cases, further damaging one of Asia’s weakest economic outlooks. While these measures have provided an initial boost to sentiment, they may have a limited impact on private consumption or the economy as a whole. The strength of the economic recovery will also depend on an effective economic response to support vulnerable households and firms. Critical moves to navigate the financial impact of COVID-19: A Southeast Asia perspective. 0000021092 00000 n xref Policy rates below 0.5 per cent could create transmission difficulties, with banks unable to match the BOT cut, given their mandatory contribution to the bailout fund as the central has yet to announce an adjustment to the contribution, he said. In addition, the Bank of Thailand has set up a corporate bond market stabilization fund to help firms rollover maturing bonds (2.4% of GDP) and fund soft loans to SMEs (2.9% of GDP). People and culture make Deloitte a great place to work.
At Deloitte, we place great emphasis on offering competitive benefits. While Thailand has announced sizeable response packages, challenges include connectivity to register for beneficiaries and building an integrated social registry that can provide timely information to target vulnerable groups and provide information to policymakers on program design and gaps. We now forecast Thai GDP growth at -1.0 per cent this year, versus +1.8 per cent previously, with Q1 growth at -3.0 per cent year on year. The impact from the trade war has improved, but global economic growth is still lower than the average seen between 2001 and 2019, which was 3.9 per cent, Anusorn said.
DTTL does not provide services to clients. 0000022362 00000 n “Thailand has large exposure as a tourism hub, close to 15% of GDP, and it also has large exposure of the export-oriented sector,” said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior economist for Thailand at the World Bank. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict the kingdom’s economy will contract more than others in Southeast Asia, at 6%, and with a weaker rebound in 2021 of 4%. 7 Jul 2020 at 10:57. published :
The central bank has showed concern about the baht’s strength, which hampers exports and will complicate the economic recovery. © 2020.
0000021305 00000 n This site uses cookies to optimize functionality and give you the best possible experience. Weaker global demand has led to a contraction in global trade, which, in turn, has hit Thailand’s exports and disrupted global value chains, such as automobiles, in which Thailand is an active participant.
This page has economic forecasts for Thailand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Thailand economy. Thailand recorded no foreign tourist arrivals or receipts for a second straight month in May as the pandemic forced border closings. Rising gold prices during the outbreak have led local investors to sell gold, boosting total exports. Source: Bank of Thailand Monthly Economic Report. Respond, Recover, Thrive: An evolving perspective on the economic impacts of COVID-19, Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), its global network of member firms, and their related entities. Current low oil prices will support the C/A surplus given Thailand’s status as a net commodity importer.
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), its global network of member firms, and their related entities. Efforts to kindle domestic tourism won’t offset the tremendous losses to this critical industry, which last year made up about one-fifth of Thailand’s economy. Tourism and recreation, media, and transportation sectors are the hardest hit sectors, followed by commercial and professional services, and automobiles and parts. Data and research help us understand these challenges and set priorities, share knowledge of what works, and measure progress. Thailand’s economy shows no signs of a turnaround. startxref %PDF-1.6 %���� If you continue to navigate this website beyond this page, cookies will be placed on your browser. September 22, 2020. "The bank has sharply lower our 2020-22 GDP growth forecasts to reflect the worsening coronavirus outbreak – both globally and domestically – and our recent downward revisions for China, the US and the euro area as we are expecting recessions in the US and euro area). With 189 member countries, staff from more than 170 countries, and offices in over 130 locations, the World Bank Group is a unique global partnership: five institutions working for sustainable solutions that reduce poverty and build shared prosperity in developing countries.
The coronavirus outbreak has dealt a further blow to activities, and the consumer confidence index declined in February to the lowest level since April 1999.
We expect fiscal deficit forecasts of -3.5 per cent of GDP for 2020 and -3.0 per cent for both 2021 and 2022.
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