This is BP's (NYSE:BP) world oil reserves updated to 2019. On a YoY basis, Non-OPEC production was up by 1,913 kb/d while world oil demand was down by close to 1,250 kb/d in Q1 2020. According to the EIA weekly inventory report, US production reversed its production slide in the week of June 19. For May, we should expect to see a production decrease of approximately 8,100 kb/d to 62,200 kb/d. Therefore, there will be a substantial rise in the call on OPEC oil in the opening decades of the 21st century. Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) had planned to reduce production by 200 kb/d in May but reversed those cuts amid resilient Chinese demand.
Azerbaijan, Indonesia and India appear to be in a slow steady decline phase. In April, that changed when we saw the first big drop in output from the Non-OPEC countries. It is higher than the EIA numbers because it includes NGPLs.
For the week of August 21, Williston and Eagle Ford each dropped one rig. (Thanks Ron). Some experts, including officials at the IEA, worry that wildly fluctuating oil prices and the inability for some firms to get financing because of the credit crisis will deter investment in any type of new oil production, leading to a supply crunch. The number of shale wells drilled in 2016 was 113, a 40% fall from the 191 in 2015. Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to April 2020. According to OPEC's May report, China's production in March increased by 39 kb/d to get back to 3,900 kb/d (Red dot). The actual 2017 reserves increase was 38.5B barrels due to reserve depletions in other countries. ALGERIA; ANGOLA; INDONESIA; EQUATORIAL-GUINEA; ECUADOR; IRAN; IRAQ; KUWAIT; LIBYA; NIGERIA; QATAR; SAUDI ARABIA; UAE; VENEZUELA; OPEC Countries; Non-OPEC list. May is expected to be the low point at 46,769 kb/d before output begins to recover in June. This cut is 50 kb/d higher than originally planned. Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA's International Energy Statistics and updated to April 2020. Since the current EIA data is two months delayed, May is the second month that shows the combined effects of the pandemic and low oil prices. Last year, informal discussions between our two organisations helped stabilise the market at the time of the Iraq war. Follow Ron Patterson and get email alerts. Under the DoC, Mexico has committed to reduce output by 100 kb/d in May. Blog Post Output is projected to be down by 1,888 kb/d in November 2021 from the high of December 2019. Looking at some of the individual country drops between April and May as reported by other sources, these stood out; OPEC 6,331 kb/d, Russia 1,942 kb/d, US 2,060 kb/d, Canada 260 kb/d, Brazil 193 kb/d and Mexico 76 kb/d for a total of 10,862 kb/d.
It projects Non-OPEC production will drop to 46,074 kb/d in May before beginning to recover to over 48,000 kb/d in August. May’s production drop is just short of 2 Mb/d by 11 kb/d. Our figures show annual average growth of 3.1 per cent in South-East Asia, 4.4 per cent in China and an exceptional 5.5 per cent in South Asia during this period. McKennitt of the U.S. National Association of Petroleum Investment Analysts points out that the energy-intensive process for extracting oil from tar sands has cut into natural gas exports to the United States because so much gas is being used in the extraction process. This chart is world oil production without the US. Average daily production in June was 1,560 kb/d. However, all producers stand to gain from cooperation, on all time-horizons. Backgrounder by Using the EIA weekly data, May drops to 11,419 kb/d, orange dot. “On 29 April 2020, the Government decided to implement a cut in Norwegian oil production. Norwegian production fell by almost 800,000 bpd from 2000 to 2007.
The increase in production is mainly due to the Lula and Búzios fields, which together account for more than 50% of the total national production. Nonetheless, other producers were expected to offset the cut to take more market share, notably the US shale industry. Interestingly, Texas oil rigs were up by one to 98. Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen. Also, it should be noted that February's output estimate from the EIA's earlier May report, 12,833 kb/d, has been revised down to 12,744 kb/d, a downward revision of 89 kb/d. While the STEO is showing fairly steady drop from March to October, the projection from October to March 2021 appears to be more tentative and further revisions should be expected over that time. UKʼs production increased by 39 kb/d in April to 997 kb/d. The orange square represents world oil production if the Non-OPEC countries’ output had not dropped by 1,751 kb/d. Projections from OPECâs World Energy Model see world oil demand rising from 77 million barrels a day in 2002 to 115 mb/d in 2025 â an annual average growth rate of 1.7 per cent. However, we are now in late June 2020 and the effects of the plunge in the price of WTI, which began on January 6 and ended in the negative low of $-37.63/bbl on April 20, is showing up in plunging production numbers in US and other oil producing countries that post more recent output numbers. Alberta's monthly production limits for raw crude and bitumen are currently set at 3.81 Mb/d from December 2019 to August 2020. This chart projects world production out to September 2020. Our Member Countries have sufficient reserves to cope with the rising demand.
Using information from the August STEO, output from Non-OPEC countries, W/O the US, will drop to close to 36,000kb/d in May and then will begin to rebound starting in June. Of the 1,888 kb/d, 1,740 kb/d are primarily from declines in US tight oil fields. Information from other sources such as the OPEC and country specific sites is used to provide a short-term outlook for future output and direction. From December 2014 to December 2018, yearly peak output remained in the range 39,300 kb/d to 39,400 kb/d, essentially an output plateau. Since the current EIA data is two months delayed, May is the second month that shows the combined effects of the pandemic and low oil prices. These five countries complete the list of Non-OPEC countries with annual production between 500 kb/d and 1,000 kb/d. UK's production dropped by 13 kb/d in February to 1,068 kb/d. However, the industry has the resource base to meet this demand. Relative to March, June production is down by 118 kb/d and this puts Mexico in compliance with their commitment.
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