A further foreign-policy priority region consists of the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with which it has good and sometimes close economic and political relationships. Will New Zealand, highly dependent on international trade, be forced to choose sides in situations where any choice would be damaging?
Over the first months of 2018 a more explicit and “realist” strand has appeared in official foreign-policy statements: great-power competition is back and the pressure from a range of forces on the international rules-based order is increasing.
Much more challenging will be the developing contest between the United States and China and the possibility of Washington at a certain moment asking for political support. They are both member of the Five Eyes partnership, in which they cooperate with the US, UK and Canada in the field of intelligence. In this first part in a series of three on Oceania, former ambassador to the Netherlands Rob Zaagman analyses the foreign policy dilemmas of New Zealand. The reactions to the outcome of the Brexit referendum were telling. Like all states, New Zealand will continue to review and develop its international policy in light of the speed and measure of unpredictability of the incisive changes in world affairs. With Chris Seed taking over from Brook Barrington as MFAT’s new chief executive and an array of newly-appointed ambassadors settling into their posts, the Government can continue to shape our foreign policy to its own vision. The two countries share a head of state and Cabinet ministers pay regular visits to the other country. (Foreign minister Peters, at the time in opposition, was – and presumably still is - in favour of Brexit.) It supports a rules-based world order which protects freedom, democracy and human rights and promotes international trade. However, that is true only in relative terms: trade remains a top priority for export nation New Zealand. With a history of British settlement, political and cultural domination and influence, its norms, values and moral instincts are those of a Western European country. Only the Green Party also interpreted the result in terms of a weakening of a likeminded force in the world. Also regarding MH17 the position of the government developed. The government and most opposition parties voiced concerns about the impact of the loss of their biggest ally within the EU on the economic relations with the Union. In 2016-2017 it served as an elected member on the UN Security Council after a hugely successful election campaign. The current government treats the relationship in broader terms and has promised to be “cordial, constructive and clear” with Beijing about issues of disagreement, such as human rights, trade interests and the security and stability of the region. While the fundamentals mentioned above underpin the new government’s foreign policy as well, several issues have received a much higher priority than during the preceding nine years of governments led by the National Party. England expects solidarity from Wellington in cases such as the attack with the nerve agent novichok in March 2018. Origins of New Zealand foreign policy Before the Second World War, New Zealand had only one major overseas post, in London.
With Russia’s influence in the region solidified, peace will not come without its assent. New Zealand’s second major concern is what it calls the increasing pressure by China on the system of international rules. Economically open, New Zealand is highly dependent on international trade. Comment: Navigating an increasingly unstable and uncertain geopolitical environment would have been a challenge for any government in 2018 - and that goes doubly so for a new administration still getting to grips with its agenda closer to home. The European Union is not regarded as one of the first-tier partners of New Zealand.
China has strongly objected to these remarks and demanded a correction (which minister Peters has refused). Sam Sachdeva runs over some of the issues that are likely to occupy the Government’s time. New Zealand is a small island nation at the bottom of the world and usually speaks very softly as a good international citizen. The attack in New Zealand was inspired in part by the Norwegian mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik, but the real threat is lone wolves lurking in the far corners of the Internet. While that will not differ from its predecessors in some respects - namely, promotion of the international rules-based order - there are enough areas of both likely change and potential stumbles that it will be fascinating to watch. Threats to the Good Friday Agreement—and culture wars—make this a critical constituency in a swing state. Reader donations are critical to what we do. That has bought ministers more time to consider the changing conditions on the ground and the stance of our partners, with US President Donald Trump having signalled a withdrawal from Afghanistan which could make others inclined to follow. That seems unlikely to change, and is why New Zealand has been joined by other “traditional” partners like Australia and the UK in putting a renewed emphasis on the Pacific. Western governments are guilty of a double standard when it comes to policing digital hate culture. From a European perspective New Zealand’s position with regard to Russia is of interest as well. Bilateral relationships New Zealand’s third special relationship, with the United Kingdom, is determined by a wide range of aspects: historical, cultural, political, security (Five Eyes) and economic.
That seems optimistic, and an obvious test this year will be whether Kiwi trade negotiators can get an upgrade of the China FTA across the line. Conclusion The UK is currently New Zealand’s largest trading partner within the European Union. Australia is the largest investor in New Zealand and its second-largest trading partner. Previously, however, Wellington had been more careful. White nationalist terrorism is becoming normalized through internet forums. The United Kingdom’s equivocating over when, how and whether to “Brexit” is causing difficulties not just for itself and the European Union, but its former colony in Aotearoa. Small nation New Zealand needs a strong network of bilateral relationships. Obviously, because of its geographical location New Zealand has a more detached view of that country than the EU. A Department of External Affairs was set up in 1919, but focused on territories in the Pacific.
As New Zealand moves from crisis to recovery mode the need to support local industry has been brought into sharp relief. Beyond looms crucial China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner and an increasingly assertive world power. Less and less geographical distance equals immunity from international trouble. The lessons of the last National government should not be lost on Labour - and the lesson likely to be visited on NZ First should not be lost on the Greens. Fundamentals and priorities of New Zealand’s foreign policy.
Pressure remains on the Government to get to the bottom of the break-ins, and to formulate a more cohesive and clear response to the issue of foreign interference. But after the release of the report of the Joint Investigation Team on 24 May, the government stated its support for the call by Australia and the Netherlands for Russia to be held responsible for the actions of its military in the use of a Russian anti-aircraft missile against a civilian airliner. A vote against cannabis buries the existence of people who haven’t been able to participate in the debate because - unlike middle-class recreational users - they have a lot to lose, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell.
In the 1970s and 1980s, anti-nuclear sentiment increased across New Zealand fuelling concerns about French nuclear testing in the Pacific at Moruroa atoll. There is a risk of that backfiring, with Western nations seeming too paternalistic and focussed on shutting China out rather than working to the benefit of Pacific nations. Unfortunately for Jacinda Ardern and Winston Peters, 2019 seems set to bring more difficult decisions related to our allies, partners and potential enemies. Sam Sachdeva runs over some of the issues that are likely to occupy the Government’s time.
The case of Russia suggests it cannot. International issues will force themselves upon this small nation and confront it with fundamental questions. (Australia did.) Now it’s driving them away. Ardern’s plans for a first trip to Beijing in 2018 fell afoul of supposed scheduling issues, but some suspected the Government’s newly hardening line on China may have been a factor.
New Zealand focuses on the South Pacific and Antarctica whereas Australia looks much more to the Indo-Pacific area and Asia. It is very uneasy about the strategic competition between Beijing and Washington and worried about the consequences of the trade conflict between the US and China. The most important are Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom and China. Should a similar situation occur here, the consequences could be equally chaotic: already, there have been reports of Chinese state-run companies discouraging business trips to New Zealand. Non-proliferation and disarmament have been put at the top of the foreign-policy agenda, including early ratification of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and the re-establishment of the position of Minister for Disarmament (taken up by Foreign Minister and NZ First leader Winston Peters).
New Zealand does not discourage this perception but waits for the outcome of the Brexit negotiations before getting into substance. Photo: Lynn Grieveson. In early March, minister Peters said there was no evidence that the plane was taken down at the behest of the Russian government. Despite the Russia scandals plaguing the White House, Russian ‘Order of Friendship’ winner given a mission. It regards China as a global player of strategic importance and accepts its rise as an ambitious world power as a given. But until March 15, it had never faced an unnatural one.
In particular under president Obama, relations had been steadily improving after the frosty period since Wellington’s rejection of nuclear weapons.2 However, like so many other capitals Wellington is uncertain about the course president Trump is steering and its consequences for world trade. Then there is the vexed issue of New Zealand’s tariff rate quotas, or TRQs, for the EU and UK being drastically slashed and restricting the ability of sheepmeat and dairy exporters to bring their products into Europe. A large part of the Pacific reset has been driven by China’s increased spending and activity in the region, despite Peters’ protestations to the contrary.
The current New Zealand government intends to devote more attention and technical and financial aid to the region, where it is concerned about increasing strategic rivalry between the great powers and growing Chinese influence. How the far-right's failed cryptocurrency gamble became a bad joke for the Christchurch killer. One look at Five Eyes ally Canada offers a hint of the risks New Zealand faces. Here are just a few of the global issues that Ardern, Peters and company will have to chew over in the course of the year. There, the detention of senior Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou at the behest of the US has sparked angry words from Beijing, the seemingly retaliatory detention of Canadians in China, and the sacking of Canada’s ambassador to China by Justin Trudeau after the diplomat suggested there were flaws in the American extradition request.
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