Declines in oil demand could be even greater, on the other hand, if a second wave of Covid‑19 occurs in the second half of 2020, constraining activity and oil demand across most of 2020. While demand has no doubt been affected by containment, owing to the closure of shops in many countries, several basic activities and industries have remained open, thus providing a demand floor. For Q2 2020, demand is expected to be 23.1 mb/d below 2019 levels. In expanding markets, however, slower sales can put a brake on demand growth, compounding the impacts of Covid‑19. Data show that global flight numbers were down 70% at the start of April from a year earlier. Demand in April is estimated to be 29 mb/d lower than a year ago, falling to a level last seen in 1995. Percentage change in electricity demand in selected regions, 1970–2020 United States European Union China World -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Global energy demand declined by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2020, with most of the impact felt in March as confinement measures were enforced in Europe, North America and elsewhere. Electricity demand Global electricity demand decreased by 2.5% in Q1 2020, though lockdown measures were in place for less than a month in most countries. In China, the country first affected by the Covid‑19 outbreak, lockdowns began to curb mobility from the end of January, resulting in an estimated decline of more than 13% in quarterly oil demand compared with Q1 2019. Chinese oil demand is believed to have accounted for 1.7 mb/d of the non-OECD drop. Reduced mobility is estimated to have lowered world gasoline demand by 1.7 mb/d in Q1 2020 compared with Q1 2019. We expect gasoline demand to remain under pressure in the second half of 2020, falling by 590 kb/d on average, because of the postponement of large events such as the Tokyo Olympics and because some containment measures are bound to stay in place in some countries. Car sales in the United States also experienced major declines, down 38% in March, while sales in India in the same month fell 50%. The damage done by Covid‑19 to oil demand beyond China became clearer during March, as the outbreak moved to Europe and the United States and a growing number of countries imposed strict containment measures. In March, activity increased as certain provinces eased restrictions. Demand in April is estimated to be 29 mb/d lower than a year ago, falling to a level last seen in 1995. The International Air Transport Association expects flight capacity utilisation to average 65% below 2019 levels in Q2 2020, 40% in Q3 2020 and 10% in Q4 2020. China was the first to implement containment measures, in mid-January, and experienced the world’s largest demand reduction in Q1 2020, of 6.5%. Global electricity demand is set to fall by 5% in 2020, the largest decline since the Great Depression. Road transport in regions with lockdowns in place has dropped between 50% and 75%, with global average road transport activity almost falling to 50% of the 2019 level by the end of March 2020. Peak congestion in mid-March was down by 50% to 60% in cities as varied as Istanbul, Los Angeles, Mexico City, Mumbai, New York, Paris, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Toronto, according to data supplied by the navigation device maker TomTom. Total oil demand is estimated to have declined by 5.6 mb/d in Q1 2020. The impact of containment measures in 187 countries and territories has almost brought global mobility to a halt. Oil demand in March declined by more than 10 mb/d relative to March 2019, pushing Q1 2020 demand in advanced economies down by 2.3 mb/d relative to March 2019. Demand is likely to have fallen by 2.1 mb/d, or 27%, in March after travel bans were implemented widely and a large proportion of the world’s aircraft fleet was grounded from around the middle of the month. The recovery in the second half of 2020 is projected to be gradual, as economies come out of containment and activity levels rise. As global aviation activity collapsed, jet fuel was the oil product with the largest decline in demand relative to 2019. Nonetheless, demand is not expected to reach pre-crisis levels before the end of the year, with December demand projected to be down 2.7 mb/d from December 2019 levels. Global oil demand is expected to be a record 9.3 mb/d lower in 2020 than in 2019. Global Energy Review 2020 In response to the exceptional circumstances stemming from the coronavirus pandemic, the annual IEA Global Energy Review has expanded its coverage to include real-time analysis of developments to date in 2020 and possible directions for the rest of the year. Lockdowns in Q1 2020 and a slide in consumer confidence reduced not only transport activity but also global car sales, with important implications for oil demand across the rest of the year. In the days after the world’s largest cities implemented lockdowns or other restrictions, road traffic fell sharply. Three reasons converged to explain this drop. As a consequence of global lockdown measures, mobility – 57% of global oil demand – has declined at an unprecedented scale. The picture for EVs in Europe contrasts with China where EV sales in Q1 2020 declined even further than total car sales. This can reduce declines in gasoline and diesel demand in markets with limited expansion in total fleet size, such as the European Union and the United States. IEA Global Review 2020. 18 May 2020 12:12pm. In the rest of the world, demand dropped by 3.3 mb/d across Q1 2020. Overall, for 2020, diesel consumption is expected to fall by 2 mb/d (7%). The drop in car sales slows improvements in energy efficiency where there are fuel economy targets in place. Find help for households and businesses impacted by COVID-19 and what the government is doing about energy . The impact of containment measures in 187 countries and territories has almost brought global mobility to a halt. In OECD countries, Europe’s oil demand is estimated to have dropped by 0.9 mb/d, America’s by 0.8 mb/d and Asia’s by 0.6 mb/d. Demand is increasing for certain petrochemical products because of greater consumer demand for packaging and demand for personal protective equipment, with a notable potential for increased PET demand. Covid‑19 containment measures will also reduce demand for other oil products, such as LPG, ethane, naphtha and residual fuel, but the impact is likely to be less acute than for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Nonetheless, we estimate that oil demand levels in China were 22% lower in March 2020 than in March 2019. Gasoline demand, in particular, could be supported by unwillingness to use public transport as recent trends show in China. Anecdotal evidence suggests that gasoline demand is down by 70% in both France and the United Kingdom during the confinement period. The International Maritime Organization’s sulphur regulations on bunker fuel, which took effect at the start of the year, offset part of the drop by boosting diesel demand in the shipping sector. IEA (2020), Global Energy Review 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020. Aviation activity in China has rebounded slightly from the low at the end of February, as lockdown measures have eased slightly. Thank you for subscribing. We estimate that combined jet fuel and kerosene deliveries fell in January by 310 kb/d, or 4%, and in February by 1.1 mb/d, or 14%, relative to 2019. Global coal demand was hit the hardest, falling by almost 8% compared with the first quarter of 2019. IEA Global Review 2020 COVID-19 Help. For 2020 as a whole, demand is expected to fall by 2.1 mb/d on average, or 26%. Keep up to date with our latest news and analysis by subscribing to our regular newsletter. Car sales in China declined 82% in February relative to 2019, before recovering to 48% below 2019 levels in March. For 2020 as a whole, we forecast gasoline consumption to decline by 2.9 mb/d, or 11%. In Q1 2020, world jet kerosene demand is estimated to have fallen 1.2 mb/d from Q1 2019 levels. Global oil demand is expected to be a record 9.3 mb/d lower in 2020 than in 2019.
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