Request a demo. Below you can see my idea of a “common sense” but still reasonably conservative European scenario, taking into account this year’s trending ~7.5% share or higher: Added to the pre-existing hard data about January and February 2020 European results, we have other circumstantial evidence that BNEF could and should have taken into account in their report. Won’t every vehicle on sale in Europe by 2030 have some kind of battery and plug?”. From the classic William Gibson observation: “The future is already here, it’s just not very evenly distributed.” Word of mouth and ride-alongs with friends and family is quickly helping spread the message. This is despite the fact that BNEF had to have known (well before publishing their report in mid May) that Europe was already showing 6.5% plug-in market share over the first two months of 2020.
This point has already been crossed by the Tesla Model 3 SR+ in its segment (in comparison with comparable sedans from BMW, Audi, etc.) This is a non-linear effect because the fleet of EVs that regular folks are coming into contact with, and its distribution across regions, is growing all the time. Crisis results from March showed the number rising further. We here are CleanTechnica, amongst other EV watchers, regularly highlight non-linear dynamics, most obviously via the Osborne effect. Over 95% market share would not be particularly shocking. © 2020 Bloomberg Finance L.P. All rights reserved. Here are some examples from individual European nations that have already demonstrated this pattern: To supplement the above graph data which ends in 2019, data for cumulative 2020 EV market share so far (to April) are as follows: Norway is at 70%; Iceland somewhere above 35%; Sweden at 27%; and Netherlands at 12%. Let’s just hope that BNEF has a fundamental rethink in time for their 2021 report. by Dr. Maximilian Holland. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Appreciate CleanTechnica’s originality? Talk of “home charing saturation” completely misses the point that many of those vehicle owners who don’t have a plug at home, can in many cases alternatively charge at their workplace just as easily. That price parity point has already been passed in Shanghai, China, by the Model 3 (where premium brand sedans from BMW et al. Contact us, To find out how to become a client or to schedule a demo please enter your details below or. Check out Jose’s articles (and his EV-Sales blog) for more details on all of these trends. Advertise with CleanTechnica to get your company in front of millions of monthly readers. Overall sales down 78%, EV sales down 16% from April 2019.2020 Year-to-date plug-in share at around 8% of sales.
The most sophisticated datasets and models in the world. This error in basic data collection and inference sets BNEF off on the wrong track for Europe over the next two decades. By submitting my information, I agree to the privacy policy and to learn more about products and services from Bloomberg.
Contact us, Global LNG Outlook 2018: Long-term forecast of LNG markets to 2030, BNEF Summit: Ideas, insights, and connections for a cleaner, more competitive future, New Energy Pioneers 2019: Identifying game-changing startups, Climatescope 2018: Clean energy in emerging markets, State of Clean Energy Investment: Trends report and 2019 predictions, Today’s potential, tomorrow’s opportunity. To a cleaner, more competitive future. The message is that EVs are already a superior transport technology compared to 19th century combustion engines. And still I hear some of our audience asking, “Why the remaining 5% gas cars sales? Like some gas stations, such DC charging hubs can include an express grocery store and a coffee machine. The full year EV market share percentage in Europe has consistently been higher than the January+February result, in any given year. The content produced by this site is for entertainment purposes only. Article images from respective brands or author. This standard socket, with an EV mobile charger, gives enough power to cover daily commutes. Privacy | Terms | Disclaimer | 沪ICP备17049401号-3, Want to learn how we help our clients put it all together? ... Blogs; PTI . More surprisingly, BNEF do not appear to see any emergent non-linear dynamics in Europe’s EV transition. Other non-linear dynamics are in play, including consumers’ exposure to direct experience of an EV via family, friends, or colleagues (or even taxis). This means that in absolute number terms, for the fast-becoming-obsolete technology — in this case combustion vehicles — unit sales will reduce even faster than EV sales grow, and the EV market share percentage will grow even faster than raw numbers of unit sales actually grow. Once this happens, the effect on consumer preferences will be non-linear.
Why will this price parity cause a non-linear shift? They talk about the need for charging infrastructure to grow “as the number of owners with access to home charging saturates.” In my view, this is not going to present a brake on EV adoption, for a couple of reasons. are a much worse value).
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This strong 2020 trend emerged before the pandemic crisis’s brake on overall auto sales pushed Europe’s EV share much higher to 9.9% in March, and most recently to an 11% share in April, bringing the year-to-date share to 7.8%. The Tesla Model 3 is on sale in Europe today, and the Model Y sometime in 2021. https://t.co/6QZ4ZgoguZ, — Colin Mckerracher (@colinmckerrache) May 28, 2020. Have a tip for CleanTechnica, want to advertise, or want to suggest a guest for our CleanTech Talk podcast? These non-linear dynamics can result in EV market share climbing steadily to somewhere between 5% and 10% and then jumping up quickly. We help corporate strategy, finance and policy professionals navigate change and generate opportunities. BNEF is online, on mobile, and on the Terminal. In mid-May 2020, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) released their latest annual Electric Vehicle Outlook, projecting the speed of the EV transition from 2020 out to 2040. At this point, which will come to many vehicles in the next 2 to 4 years or so in Europe (depending on market segment), there will be another non-linear change in the market. By the end of this decade (when BNEF forecasts just 35% EV market share in Europe), charging will be a complete non-issue, taking ~10 minutes or less for a week’s commute. Published on May 31st, 2020 | Here’s the European forecast from BNEF’s graph, showing their 3.75% Europe 2020 forecast (you can see the original graph and similar ones via BNEF’s page here): But hang on — are January and February figures reliably correlated with the full year figures? Sign up for our free daily newsletter or weekly newsletter to never miss a story. We help corporate strategy, finance and policy professionals navigate change and generate opportunities.
Tesla’s Model 3 Long Range and Model Y Long Range vehicles already have this capability today. © 2020 Bloomberg Finance L.P. All rights reserved.
Contact us here. BloombergNEF (BNEF), Bloomberg’s primary research service, covers clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials and commodities. Arguably, the Tesla Model 3 is already benefiting from this. Unlike a gas station, you can leave an EV unattended whilst it is recharging, so effectively you are combining express shopping for some groceries with vehicle recharging.
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